I’m no expert on politics but it doesn’t take a physiognomist to figure out that a bleeding heart will not stop it. The same might be said of a casino.

I am just trying to be realistic. I understand the effect the proposed casino already has had in Plymouth just in the idea form and, I guess, technically and legally, the project form.

In 2004, I attended the Bureau of Indian Affairs scoping session on the casino matter, listening to everyone from Mario Biagi to the district attorney to speakers on behalf of state politicians comment on mitigations and their adequacy and the impacts on the small highway system that takes thousands of cars a weekend through the county. It was and continues to be pointed out that no public entity in the county endorses the Plymouth casino project. The same is said about the Jackson Valley casino proposal.

There are companies right now looking at the impacts on traffic and water and other issues. An advisory vote is on the ballot for the Nov. 8 election. People must decide if they support more casinos. Specifically, they must vote yes or no to the question, Measure I:

“Do you approve of the establishment of any more casinos in Amador County?”

It’s non-binding, legally. I think it would have no effect on the Buena Vista Flying Cloud Casino, which already has a signed compact, which Gov. Davis began and Gov. Schwarzenegger re-signed.

That casino, in Jackson Valley, however, does face its own land identity lawsuit, with Amador County Board of Supervisors suing Secretary of the Interior Gale Norton over whether or not the tribe’s land is a reservation.

The Buena Vista Band of Me-Wuk Indians released its environmental study saying it would benefit the county. County officials released statements that mitigation was not enough and they needed more money to cover impacts.

In Plymouth, the city has an agreement with the Ione Band of Miwok Indians, still in place, though a majority of the council is against it. The city has signed off on the defense of that Municipal Services Agreement and the tribe has stepped in to defend it. The MSA led to the recall election of three Plymouth City Council members. Another election three months later replaced the same anti-casino majority. The sides argue about how many people in Plymouth oppose a casino. I guess Nov. 8 will truly decide, countywide.

The governments of Plymouth and Ione have commissioned studies on the casinos’ respective impacts, as has the Amador County Transportation Commission and who knows who else. Caltrans and the Ione Miwoks are working together, studying traffic impacts from here to Modesto. But all the study seems to boil down to the mitigation of those impacts and agreeing on the paying of their “fair share,” determining the impacts to be expected.

I think the impact would be the passage of millions of dollars through the county. It would pour into the county, roll in on the roads, jingle into the slot, slide through the machine and spin to a stop in the lock-box. The jackpots would be paid, the proceeds divided certainly, the checks cut and the sovereignty respected.

But is it worth it?

The governor said he would not sign a compact with a tribe that has an advisory vote against a casino. The Ione Band has no compact, at least not that I know of.

Without a governor’s compact, it would take an act of Congress to establish the sovereignty of taking land in trust for a tribal casino. That is not the same as an act of God. An act of Congress results in a law. So it’s not a miracle. Thus it is possible, in my opinion, that the “no” vote on Measure I could be overridden by Congress, which has heard of Plymouth’s story.

I’m no expert.

But why chance it?